Trump: The Bitcoin President
Are You Bullish Enough?
If you like this article, please do share it with a friend & click the ❤️ above. Thanks :)
If you’re new here, I share “buy-and-hold portfolios” that I believe can double in 3-5 years. Here is the performance of our 2 current active portfolios:
You can see my Live Investment Scorecard here.
Trump: The Bitcoin President
One of Trump’s campaign points was that he would “Protect Bitcoin.”
Well, with Trump’s victory, Bitcoin and crypto had a great day post Election:
Bitcoin was up ~9%
Ethereum was up ~11%
Solana was up ~15%
As you know I have been bullish on bitcoin for a while. I first wrote about it in early 2020 (and made it a 25% bet in Coffee Can 2 with a purchase price around $9600). I’ve held it since.
I later doubled down on Bitcoin in Coffee Can 12 making it a 20% allocation. And I wrote this about where I thought the price would go:
Bitcoin $76,000 came yesterday, in less than a year, and I think we will continue to rise from here. This was the first double in Coffee Can 12 and took 341 days.
Here is a wonderfully simple way of thinking about where Bitcoin Prices may go in 2025.
A Simple Bitcoin Price Model
“The number of weeks from the start of each bull market cycle (the low following a 75%-plus decline) to the Halving dates has been almost equal to the number of weeks from the Halving dates to the subsequent bull market highs”
—Peter Brandt (A Market Wizard)
If we were to model Bitcoin future price appreciation based on this simple observation, then one would expect Bitcoin prices to peak (for this cycle) around September 2025 between $130K-150K.
I do think prices will get around there in 2025.
This is why I have an overweight allocation to Crypto in our 2 active portfolios:
40% in Coffee Can 12
26.5% in Coffee Can 13
Here is an email excerpt I sent to folks on the waitlist for my buy/sell alerts:
To receive timely notifications of my buys/sells, join the waitlist here
Why Will Bitcoin’s Price Get There?
I wholeheartedly believe that we are experiencing the birth of a new asset class (Crypto), and as a result, we are seeing the mainstreaming of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin demand is increasing, while supply isn’t. The outcome therefore is simple: Prices should go up.
Bitcoin was first owned by individuals. Now we are seeing institutions starting to own it (of course Microstrategy is the poster child of this). Recently we all heard that Microsoft is considering doing so. These are just 2 examples, but there are many.
We have also started to see State Funds starting to allocate to Bitcoin. For example, the State of Michigan Retirement System now owns both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Detroit will even allow using Crypto to make tax payments/fees:
Even countries own BTC.
In fact, Senator Lummis has put forward a bill for the U.S. Govt to buy up to 1,000,000 bitcoins over the next 5 years (that’s $76 Billion in today’s price), indicating that the US may indeed one day make Bitcoin a strategic reserve.
Central Banks are big buyers of Gold…why not Bitcoin?
If this happens, you better believe other countries will follow suit.
With all that said…let me ask: are you bullish?
let me rephrase… are you bullish enough?
Solana Side-Note
This is embarrassing but I wanted to be transparent.
In Coffee Can 13, I listed Ethereum and Solana both with a start date of 8/7/2024. These were the underlying coins, not the ETFs. However, since I use the GoogleFinance function in Google Sheets to track my investment performance automatically (and GoogleFinance function doesn't support these coin prices), I ended up using ETHW and GSOL on the Google Sheets without thinking much about it.
Yesterday, after the election, we saw a massive breakout in Crypto where Ethereum was up ~11% and Solana was up ~15%. However, GSOL was down ~30%. This didn't add up. So I looked into it. And GSOL has been crashing due to how expensive the premium to NAV that existed in the ETF. The reason being: we have a pro-crypto administration in place, so it will likely become easier to buy Solana from here on out (eg: perhaps with Solana ETFs), and therefore GSOL cannot warrant such a high premium to NAV any more.
The good news is I owned the coins.
The bad news is I used GSOL on the spreadsheet where I track performance :(
For transparency I have taken “a loss on the spreadsheet” and switched to Solana coin and will update prices manually rather than relying on the GoogleFinance function. I will keep ETHW as-is since it seems to track actual prices correctly.
Sigh...
Anyway...our 26.5% crypto basket is doing well so far and I believe it will continue to do so through most of 2025:
10% into Ethereum (+19%)
10% into Solana (-44% with GSOL, but in reality +50% with the actual coin...)
2% into MSTR calls (a Bitcoin Proxy) (+173%)
3% into SMLR (another Bitcoin Proxy) (+52%)
1.5% into BITX calls (2X-daily bitcoin proxy) (+25%)
Happy Investing!
If you liked this article, please do share it with a friend & click the ❤️. Thanks :)